An unidentified man won a bet on the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series with 999 to l odds. Long shots can win whatever the odds. This also applies to elections. It’s not over until the last vote is counted. At this point anything can still happen. But the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election is already almost certain.
Gambling houses exist because the odds favor the house. The odds in politics heavily favor the status quo. Our son has asked in despair what he could do to end political corruption, but he didn’t like the answer. If you really want to make a difference, learn accounting and stay out of debt. Follow the money trail to find out who the real good guys and bad guys are. Then learn the system to understand how to make the bad guys pay and help the good guys win.
This would take a lifetime of effort, which is why bad guys often win. It’s too much trouble to stop them. The best example I know of this is the original TV Series Law and Order, Season 8, Episode 21, “Bad Girl.” The DA’s office has decided not to ask for the death penalty in this particular case. Robert Vaughn plays a representative of the police union. He meets with D.A. Adam Schiff in a closed-door meeting and tells Adam that they want this girl, who killed a police officer, executed. Regardless of the rest of the storyline, this is how the real world works. The rich and powerful call a closed-door meeting where they tell others what to do. This is what the current Occupy Movement claims to hate, yet their very tactics support that system. It is this very lack of understanding of the system that will allow Herman Cain to become our next President.
In a grossly oversimplified view, there are three basic types of primaries. Caucuses have party members who have earned the right to vote (usually by just showing up). They vote in a closed meeting. Though the average nonparticipating voter can vote for a representative, he does not directly vote for the candidates. Next are closed primaries. In a closed primary, only voters who register for the party holding the primary can vote. Last are open primaries where anyone can vote, just like a general election.
In states with a caucus system, you campaign to a small number who will vote. In states with a closed primary, you campaign to your party’s base. In states with an open primary, you campaign like a general election, emphasizing your party’s issues.
In the 2012 election, if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will almost certainly lose the general election. Yes, the St. Louis Cardinals beat 999 to 1 odds and something could cause Obama to win re-election. But the house usually wins and the house is against Obama. So the Republican nominee will probably win the general election. The odds are massively in his or her favor.
The Republican Party is split between conservatives, generally known as the TEA party movement, and more liberal members. Within the Republican Party, conservatives have more votes and liberals have more money. Several strong conservatives on principal have split the conservative vote. Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are vying for the same voters. Normally, that would leave the only strong liberal candidate, Mitt Romney, with the nomination.
In spite of what the liberal news pundits keep telling us, there are several reasons why Romney is not gaining support and pulling ahead. One is Ron Paul’s campaign. Even if Ron Paul is not the nominee, and his nomination is very doubtful, many of his policies will become part of the party platform. These policies are anathema to Mitt Romney and liberals like him. As various campaigns run out of money and collapse, the votes pledged to those candidates forced out of the running will be transferred to someone else. Historically, those votes go the candidate with the best chance of winning whose views are closest the candidate who dropped out. Of the conservative candidates, Herman Cain has the most support and the most money. Without any support from Mitt Romney and his followers, if Herman Cain picks up the votes pledged to Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, he will have a majority.
The major reason I believe Herman Cain will win is that he is the most liberal of the conservative candidates. His economic program is to simplify the tax code, but keep it “revenue neutral.” That is, no massive reduction in the bloated federal government. Though he says that he is pro-life, he wants to end Roe v Wade and let the individual states decide on abortion. He wants to stop illegals from coming into the US, but he has not spelled out how. Herman Cain is the only conservative that can take votes away from Mitt Romney.
Herman Cain is also likable and honest. His lack of political experience, at least for now, is a plus. The only other candidate that comes across as completely honest is Ron Paul. People are horrified by Ron Paul’s attempts to legalize drugs and close all foreign military bases, but they respect his honesty. Even Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann hedge their statements, which Republican voters are tired of. Even when I disagree with Herman Cain, I know why. Neither of the Bush presidents could claim as much honesty or clarity in their statements.
But in the end it is a numbers game. In the 2008 general election John McCain had 59,934,814 votes and Barack Obama had 69,456,897 votes. About 18 million voted in the Republican primaries, but most states had only a few thousand who controlled the delegate selection process. Probably the most telling sign is in the polls which show Herman Cain ahead of Rick Perry in Perry’s home state of Texas.